Polymarket
Shocks vs Wikipedia news
Every large probability move on Polymarket, timed against the nearest Wikipedia edit on the relevant article. Negative Δt = price moved first.
Lead/lag distribution Δt = shock − Wikipedia edit, hours
← shock first · Δt = shock − Wiki edit · news first →
Ticks sit at the band thresholds (±30m, ±3h) and human time-units (1d, 3d, 1w). Grey centre = inside detector resolution.
By market category share of shocks in each band
Politics dominates the decisive-shock-first bucket. Finance is split; Weather is cleanly news-led.
Top cases per band cleanest 10 examples for each lead/lag bucket — each card shows the ±72 h price window with the shock marked
price (probability)
shock moment
Wikipedia edit
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